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Our analysis of IHS Market data reveals that the actual demand for semiconductors in the auto industry in 2020 trailed a prepandemic estimate by around 15 percentage points (Exhibit 1). That meant that even as the auto industry drastically cut chip orders, other sectors faced an increased need. At the same time, driven by the shift to remote work and the associated greater need for connectivity, consumer demand significantly rose for personal computers, servers, and equipment for wired communications, all of which heavily depend on semiconductors. Moreover, while new-vehicle sales grew in the second half of the year, the highly ambiguous sales outlook at the time meant that automakers didn’t meaningfully increase their semiconductor orders. In the first half of 2020, the auto industry faced a substantial drop in demand. Instead, a confluence of events contributed to the situation the auto industry now faces. No single incident or disruption caused the semiconductor shortage. The effects of the semiconductor shortage have extended beyond the auto sector, with other industrial players struggling to secure chips. This article addresses both how the shortage happened and what remedies for it exist. Auto manufacturers and chipmakers alike will need to work together to tackle the imbalance in demand. Many automakers are now operating in crisis mode, and few expect a rapid resolution. That highlights the fragility of those supply chains, which largely rely on Asia as a hub of semiconductor manufacturing.
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The lack of demand for new cars shuttered auto factories and sent home millions of workers, while orders for semiconductors-used in myriad ways, including in fuel-pressure sensors, digital speedometers, and navigation displays-dropped off precipitously.
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That challenge in the auto industry is the latest in a series of them that began in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, when auto sales plummeted as much as 80 percent in Europe, 70 percent in China, and nearly 50 percent in the United States.